My second entry will be devoted to the title of my blog.
not without reason that I chose Singularity.
First I want to formulate a summary
in which I will not show every detail.
But through quick Google to get there quickly to the sources.
I consider it very likely that within this century
a so-called "Singularity of Technology" will occur.
Among them is the creation of artificial intelligence that surpasses that of man to understand.
The origins of this development can be observed today.
Gordon Moore's law, written in 1975 said that this advance, that
would double every two years the number of circuit components of a computer chip
- at the same cost.
comes by the way, a doubling of speed in about the same.
fact, was the law, with few irregularities,
maintained to this day.
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mooresches_Gesetz
The increased use of computers in the industry has led to similar laws
to have spread to various areas.
examples would be the resolution of displays, Internet bandwidth and digital storage
.
This development is also called "digital revolution".
It could be in The Future extrapolate how long it will take until you reach
the capacity of a human brain. This can
it would of course know the first time how quickly our brains work at all threatened. From the firing rate of synapses and their number can be calculated a theoretical speed. Without
to name at this point is a number (as I would have to search again),
one will reach this speed in products for human consumption by about 20 to 40 years.
This is admittedly a very rough indication, but parameters such as the change from the traditional chips and factors that influence the performance of the brain in unknown mass can not more accurate estimation of. Of course, it also
could still take much longer.
Consider this, however, that Moore's law led to a 1000-fold increase in speed every 20 years. One would have enormous
with the calculations of the brain speed are already next to it, so you uebertraefe this century but not yet this Refererenz with computers.
This is not to be excluded Of course anyway.
Now supposing, you reach that point someday. Shortly thereafter
would take over computers with their speed, the ability of our brain can easily
, assuming that appropriate software would also be able
be to simulate human behavior. At the moment, but rather the software developed at higher speeds than the hardware.
What follows is the singularity:
Once you have created such an artificial intelligence, it is this easier still to improve themselves and this improved AI will be improved keonnen turn faster.
This recursive cycle would lead to a tightening of the enormous speed of development.
The consequence is clear, but for most people to cope safely not so easy to
: The man of today has had its latest, from then on as the prominent species!
One can however assume that people Over the following decades EQUIPEMENT
are also themselves more and more technical enhancements.
thought-controlled prosthesis, for example, already in use. And the Allgegewaertigkeit of the Internet leads to increased work efficiency - to be able to cope with the flood of Informtion.
deeper intervention in the human brain is only a matter of time.
Any kind of artificial intervention can therefore lead to Sinularitaet.
This keonnte but also man by his own mechanization this singularity cause, without it being necessary to develop a complete irrespectively KI
.
There is an organization, the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (SIAI), which deals extensively with this issue. The website is very informative, but given in English:
http://www.singinst.org/
That's it for now. Further contributions are to follow.
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