Exponential progress. Did you notice? The hypothesis of the singularity is for the common man today is nothing more than gray theory. And will start up the media panic To spread because the company is beginning to realize where the pass is developing and perhaps another 20 years. So until the singularity is almost as if it should take place then.
what's going on? I think people realize just not aware that the world is evolving exponentially. Just look at times of the PC. In the past 10 years, its speed to the law kept Moorsche and verzweiunddreizigfacht loose. But what has really changed for the user? We sit as much as 10 years ago are still in front of a screen, mouse and keyboard to use Office programs to process text and create tables. Even since then it came no essential functions to do so. For other programs, it looks similar. The computers run commands quickly, and the waiting times have decreased in general. But if it takes a second to a file is opened or 1 / 32 second, we do not feel as revolutionary. Otherwise it would look like if we would have to wait half a minute instead of every time you click a second. But a program that ran earlier would be so slow, would have not even sold. And so the mass gets very little from the performance boost, but sees a product until it has reacted so quickly that it is quite pleasant. Only people who are consuming items of (super) computers can calculate noted how much the tempo increased. Only these are the least. For the 0815-man has become only the screen bigger and a new feature, the Internet has come to. Not that this would be not revolutionary, but the majority of Internet users simply replacing other things.
is gechatted instead to meet or make phone calls, you go to Youtube, rather than look Fehr Sehn, followed the news instead of reading the newspaper and online buys, rather than go shopping. This is in some ways more efficient than before, but something completely new things most people do not. An exception is those who could make use of the Internet so that they work at all or changed radically from occurring. Otherwise, since the penetration of personal computers has not changed much.
But what would be anything really new? Even faster programs? Even higher resolution? More realistic game graphics? Absolutely not. The past has shown so little improvement but in a way, the convenience of computer technology, but it hardly changed our behavior, making it even less revolutionary, but merely evolutionary. But how it would look with mind-controlled navigation on the Internet?
In other words, the world needs a technological revolution, to notice how things work. Things that represent something completely new and as soon as they are suitable for the mass to spread explosively! What has the technology as to offer so far? We begin with the PC.
- The spread of PCs I consider revolutionary. When the crowd arrived, they may be middle of the 90 'years with the introduction of Windows 95
- Even cell phones I see as a revolution (~ 1999)
And there it stops already. Digital cameras, MP3 players, flat screens, laptops are even more added, but they offer no new features, but were just improvements of something old.
no wonder that people keep a crazy for if we say that it is realistic that we could have lived in 20 years with robots like humans.
happen more frequently technical revolutions, the more rather to provide the people a to greater technical Vera end, and first, if from one to the next achievement less time passes, as they need to get used to the first, they will be aware of likely that it will also grow even quicker, and so enter something like the singularity could.
are still the distances too great to create such awareness. But the closer you get to the singularity, the smaller would have to be the distances between the technical revolutions. And if you follow what is slowly from the laboratories of the industrial use in products crystallized out there a lot.
I want to name a few candidates in the next 10 years of market Reif could be and then spread probably masse would:
(estimated order with the year in which they establish themselves)
- Film Displays (~ 2010)
- touch screens to establish itself as the default Input Devices for Computer (~ 2013)
- thought-controlled prosthesis and computers (~ 2014)
- pay about RFID chips (~ 2015)
- 3D holograms (~ 2016)
- 3D printer (~ 2017)
- practical speech recognition (eg robots) (~ 2018)
- Independent robot as an auxiliary force (~ 2018)
(- Automated house construction [I think that is probably in 15 years])
This is quite a lot and some of it was even before 10 years forecast. The difference is, there exist today for all of these inventions, at least prototypes of products or finished Prudukte that are too costly to determine outside of industries to be used. The estimates of the years are of course very subjective. They reflect only about again, I would suspect.
It's about eight different things, within ten years, and my list only begins in 2 years. When about one thing each year in the mass market is worth, I think that enough 10 years until the technology is accelerating the public topic. If some of these inventions do not have to be so far, would not this mean that you have been slow in Research would be. It might as well be that there is still some technical hurdles would have revealed, so that delayed, although the development would ensure won but in the end more insights. For the remainder of this but has no particular influence.
With the advent of autonomous robots assistance (household robots) could then start in 10 years, the decisive phase. Advanced artificial intelligence would finally arrive at the final consumer and where the competitive pressures of the market will be exposed to their development in a way forced, like they would be comparable to the progress of mobile phones, flat screens and the Internet since the beginning of this decade, with the difference that an autonomous robot have much wider application. The robotics industry is probably the magnitude of today's auto industry and IT industry are taking together.
how is the way forward for the singularity looks like or whether it will perhaps never come to, can be hardly be predicted exactly. The approximate end Vera potential that robots and technical "improvements" at the people still have in front of a possible singularity is too large to predict its consequences. will
